Talks
Fall 2022

Retrospective Search: Exploration and Ambition on Uncharted Terrain

Monday, September 12th, 2022, 10:00 am10:45 am

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Speaker: 

Can Urgun (Princeton University)

Location: 

Calvin Lab Auditorium

We study a model of retrospective search in which an agent—a researcher, an online shopper, or a politician—tracks the value of a product. Discoveries beget discoveries and their observations are correlated over time, which we model using a Brownian motion. The agent, a standard exponential discounter, chooses the speed and length of search. We fully characterize the optimal search policy. The optimal search speed is U-shaped, with the agent searching most intensely when approaching a breakthrough or when nearing search termination. A drawdown stopping boundary is optimal, where the agent ceases search whenever current observations fall a constant amount below the maximal achieved alternative. We also show special features that emerge from contracting with a retrospective searcher.