Abstract

The correct evaluation of the reproductive number R for COVID-19 is central in the quantification of the potential scope of the pandemic and the selection of an appropriate course of action. In most models, R is modeled as a constant - effectively averaging out the inherent variability of the transmission process due to varying individual contact rates, population densities, or temporal factors amongst many. Yet, due to the exponential nature of epidemic growth, the error due to this simplification can be rapidly amplified, and its extent remains unknown. How can this intrinsic variability be percolated into epidemic models, and its impact, better quantified? In this talk, we will review the different approaches that have been used to tackle this question --- and hopefully discuss new potential directions.

Note: This talk will not be posted.